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Canadian Immigration Trends: Decline in New Permanent Resident Numbers

Colin Singer
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Canadian Immigration Trends: Decline in New Permanent Resident Numbers
Canadian immigration experienced a notable softening in February, with a decline of 18.4 percent compared to the previous month. This decrease contributed to a 13.8 percent drop in the number of new permanent residents entering the country for the year to date, compared to the first two months of the previous year. Although there was a significant increase of 28 percent in immigration to Canada in January compared to December of the previous year, the overall trend in the early part of this year has been towards reduced immigration. In January 2024, Canada welcomed 47,735 new permanent residents, slightly fewer than the 50,945 welcomed during the same month in 2023, according to the latest data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
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In February of the same year, Canada welcomed 39,975 new permanent residents, a notable decrease from the 49,670 recorded in February 2023. With two consecutive months of softer permanent immigration numbers compared to 2023, Canada welcomed only 86,710 new permanent residents in the first two months of 2024, which is 13,905 fewer than the 100,615 in January and February of 2023. This decline in year-to-date permanent immigration to Canada is larger than the entire population of Portage La Prairie in Manitoba. If the levels of immigration seen in January and February were to continue for the rest of the year, Canada would welcome approximately 520,260 new permanent residents in 2024. This figure represents a 10.3 percent increase over the record-setting level of 471,550 new permanent residents in 2023. Furthermore, the immigration levels seen in January and February 2024 would also exceed the target of 485,000 new permanent residents set out in Ottawa’s Immigration Levels Plan for 2023–2025 by 7.3 percent.
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The IRCC states on its website, “Following the trajectory of the 2023–2025 plan, Canada aims to welcome 485,000 new permanent residents in 2024, 500,000 in 2025, and plateau at 500,000 in 2026. This plan prioritizes economic growth, supports family reunification, responds to humanitarian crises, and recognizes the rapid growth in immigration in recent years.” The latest immigration levels plan aims to bring a total of 1.485 million immigrants to Canada over those three years. Ontario remained the most popular destination for newcomers in January and February, with 37,545 new permanent residents choosing to settle there during those two months, accounting for almost 43.3 percent of all immigrants to Canada during that period. Various economic programs, including the Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP), Agri-Food Immigration Pilot (AFIP), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and others, accounted for 55.8 percent of all new permanent residents in Ontario during January and February. These programs facilitated the arrival of 20,935 new permanent residents in the province during that period. In addition to economic programs, family sponsorships and Canada’s refugee and protected persons programs also contributed to immigration to Ontario, with 9,220 and 6,440 new permanent residents arriving through these pathways, respectively, in January and February. Other provinces and territories attracted varying numbers of new permanent residents during the same period, with Alberta and British Columbia welcoming the highest numbers after Ontario. Looking ahead, temporary immigration to Canada, which surged during the pandemic, is expected to come under a new immigration levels plan in September, as announced by Immigration Minister Marc Miller.

Quebec Temporary Immigration Freeze Proposal: Addressing Housing Affordability Crisis

Colin Singer
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Quebec Temporary Immigration Freeze Proposal: Addressing Housing Affordability Crisis
A call from a Quebec political party urges the provincial government to halt all temporary immigration under its jurisdiction, aiming to alleviate the strain on housing affordability. Parti Québécois (PQ) leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon asserts that the influx of temporary immigrants is contributing to housing unaffordability for locals, highlighting the pressing need for action. Plamondon emphasizes the necessity of addressing the issue rather than remaining passive, criticizing the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) for its inaction. In Quebec’s provincial legislature, the CAQ, led by Premier François Legault, holds the majority of seats, while the PQ remains a minority. Despite this, the PQ is gaining traction in polls and pledges to fund the construction of 45,000 housing units over the next five years if it assumes power in the 2026 election.
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This proposition coincides with mounting criticism directed at the CAQ for its handling of the housing affordability crisis. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data reveals significant numbers of new permanent residents, study permits for international students, and work permits issued in Quebec. While the PQ lacks the authority to directly limit temporary immigration, its proposal resonates with concerns raised by Premier Legault, who has attributed the housing situation partly to Ottawa’s policies regarding temporary immigration. Premier Legault has consistently advocated for maintaining current immigration levels while prioritizing the preservation of the French language and identity. He aims to predominantly attract French-speaking immigrants to Quebec by 2026, emphasizing the responsibility of Québécois to uphold their language and culture. The PQ’s stance on temporary immigration coincides with federal plans led by Immigration Minister Marc Miller to unveil a temporary immigration levels plan. Miller’s recent decision to cap study permit applications reflects efforts to manage immigration levels amid concerns about economic repercussions.
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However, economists caution that reducing immigration may exacerbate demographic challenges and strain government finances. While slower population growth might ease housing demand in the long term, it is unlikely to resolve Canada’s affordability crisis, which stems from longstanding housing shortages and other factors. In summary, the debate over temporary immigration in Quebec underscores complex economic and social considerations, including housing affordability, demographic shifts, and cultural preservation. Balancing these factors will be crucial for policymakers at both the provincial and federal levels in shaping immigration policies that meet the needs of all stakeholders.

Rethinking Canada Immigration Policy With A Focus On Citizenship

Colin Singer
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0
Rethinking Canada Immigration Policy With A Focus On Citizenship
In a recent panel discussion at the Canada Strong and Free Network conference in Ottawa, Conservative immigration critic Tom Kmiec voiced concerns over the surge in temporary residents entering Canada. Instead, he advocated for a policy shift towards prioritizing citizenship as the ultimate goal, emphasizing the importance of integrating newcomers into Canadian society. Kmiec highlighted the competition for a limited number of permanent resident positions, suggesting that Canada should focus on fostering long-term integration rather than relying heavily on short-term influxes of temporary residents. This sentiment was echoed by panel members who suggested that the current housing crisis, partly fueled by the rapid increase in foreign arrivals, necessitates a re-evaluation of immigration levels. Toronto Star columnist David Olive echoed these concerns, noting that addressing Canada’s housing crisis might require a temporary reduction in immigration levels.
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He pointed out that while the construction sector has made strides in building new homes, there remains a significant shortage of skilled workers. Olive emphasized the need for a balanced approach that includes both increased housing supply and strategic recruitment of skilled tradespeople. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged the strain that the influx of temporary residents has placed on Canada’s infrastructure and announced plans to reduce temporary immigration by 20 percent over three years. However, Olive disagreed with this approach, advocating instead for a more modest reduction in permanent residents and citing examples of other immigrant-friendly countries implementing similar measures to address housing challenges.
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Olive proposed a nuanced strategy that would allow Canada to develop a comprehensive housing plan while continuing to welcome newcomers. By temporarily reducing immigration levels, Canada could better assess its housing needs and allocate resources more effectively. In summary, there is growing recognition among policymakers and commentators that Canada’s immigration policy should prioritize integration and sustainable growth. By reevaluating immigration levels in light of current challenges, Canada can ensure that newcomers contribute to the country’s long-term prosperity while addressing pressing issues such as housing affordability.
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